Sep 17, 2026
On September 17, The Capitol Forum hosted a conference call with Willie Cade, CEO of Graceful Solutions LLC, an agricultural antitrust litigation consulting firm, to discuss right-to-repair, competition in the agricultural equipment aftermarket, and the legal and policy issues surrounding John Deere (DE). The full transcript, which has been modified slightly for accuracy, can be found below.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Hello, everyone. Welcome,. I’m Teddy Downey, Executive Editor here at The Capitol Forum.
Today, I am very pleased to be joined by Willie Cade, CEO of Graceful Solutions LLC, an agricultural antitrust litigation consulting firm. We’ll be discussing John Deere, agricultural right to repair, and competition in the farm equipment aftermarket, including the proposed class action settlement, dealer consolidation, the future of right to repair litigation, and state laws and farmer equipment data. We’ve got a lot to cover.
Willie has worked extensively on competition, repair markets, and technology issues affecting farmers and agricultural equipment. And he’s testified before the U.S. House Judiciary Committee on agricultural right to repair. Willie, thanks so much for doing this today.
WILLIE CADE: Hey, Teddy, great to be here. Thanks for having me.
TEDDY DOWNEY: And if you have a question for us, please put it in the chat. We’ll get to it later in the conversation. First off, I would love to just get a little background here how you got into agricultural right to repair issues.
WILLIE CADE: So, during my career, I refurbished computers for schools, nonprofits, and homes of at-risk children. I was one of the first Microsoft Authorized Refurbishers in the U.S. And back further, in my family history, my grandfather was chief engineer for John Deere in 1925, and a member of the board of directors when they decided to build tractors commercially. My dad worked for International Harvester for his career. So, in the agricultural world, I come from a divided family.
TEDDY DOWNEY: I can imagine. And so, one thing that’s kind of been really top of mind lately in the legal community is this John Deere proposed class action settlement. And I wanted to get your reaction to it as it relates to this right to repair settlement.
WILLIE CADE: Sure. It’s a big win. There’s no question about it. It’s insufficient, but it’s a big win. So, let me break that down a little bit for you.
For the last eight years ‑‑ which is known as the class period, it’s 8.35 years ‑‑ John Deere has really held back the tools, the electronic tools particularly, to repair equipment. And so, there were a group of farmers ‑‑ started out with 17. It’s now down to six plus one ‑‑ and I’ll talk about the plus one in a bit ‑‑ but that have ‑‑ through their attorneys, the plaintiff’s attorneys ‑‑ have agreed to a proposed settlement with John Deere.
A little bit of the terms. It’s $99 million is put into a settlement fund. That sounds like a lot of money, but by the time we get to the end of this, you’ll go, that’s not much money.
So, the lawyers may ask up to $45 million of that $99 million, and $6 million has been earmarked for the settlement administrator. So, it could be as small as $50 million for a round number. I don’t think so. I don’t think the judge will not give the full $45 million, maybe only $25 million to the plaintiff’s attorney. So, that leaves, let’s call it $75 million that’s kind of left in the kitty to distribute.
About two weeks ago now, John Deere started ‑‑ or the settlement administrator ‑‑ started sending postcards to people who qualify, people who are potential class members. It has a QR code on it. And you can go up and get a pre-populated form by the administrator that says how many hours ‑‑ oddly enough, hours ‑‑ that dealers have spent working on your equipment during the class period.
And I say oddly enough, because no invoice that I’ve ever seen ‑‑ and I’ve seen thousands of them ‑‑ has there ever been a measurement or a reference to the hours that a technician has put in on repairing something. It’s always just a dollar amount. So, it’s X thousands of dollars to do this repair or that repair. And they separated out parts from labor. So, we know what the labor is.
So, it’s a little bit odd that the basis for the settlement is hours. And no one that I know of, in terms of the people who own this equipment to get it fixed, will be able to substantiate the numbers that’s pre-populated. So, it’s weird.
Do you want me to go through the different things that people as class representatives can do?
TEDDY DOWNEY: Yeah, yeah. I was about to ask you whether you think farmers should consider opting out. But yeah, I would love to just get your ‑‑ what are the options? What should farmers think about here?
WILLIE CADE: Yeah, yeah. First, Teddy, let me make sure that everybody knows that I’m not giving anybody legal advice. They need to make their own choice here. A little disclaimer here, okay? But there’s three options and then there’s kind of a second part to one of the options.
The first option is to do nothing. And in class action suits, typically, 75 percent of the people do nothing. And by the way, if you do nothing, you get nothing. So, if you do nothing, get nothing, but you do give up your rights going forward to bring this issue up with John Deere again.
So, do nothing, get nothing is the first option. And given that it’s a postcard and an email that kind of looks like spam, there may well be a lot of people that won’t respond or take the opportunity at all. So, I’m really hoping that doesn’t happen. And that’s why I’m on this podcast with you today letting people know, you really need to do something.
The second choice is to say, okay, I’m going to file a claim. Okay, great. You’re going to file a claim. And whether you go through all of your invoices or whether you just use the pre-populated form by Deere, that’s fine. They give you a little place to agree or disagree with on the form. But if you disagree, it’s not quite clear how you’re going to fill out the number of hours that you’re going to claim for a particular repair. So, it’s a little bit confusing.
If you do make a claim, then you also have the ability to object. Now you need to do that in writing. You need to do that either through legal counsel or yourself. And you have to mail it in by December 4th. So, that’s an important date, December 4th here.
And then the third option is you could opt out. You can say, no, I don’t want to do this. This is not a settlement that I think is worth doing. So, I’m just going to opt out. You have to do that again by December 4th and you have to do it in writing. And there’s a whole procedure to do that that’s provided on the webpage from the postcard.
Just so you get an idea, remember we talked about the, let’s call it $75 million. That turns out to be for farmers about three ears of corn per acre per year for what I call the John Deere Troubles. Three ears of corn is not a lot. As a matter of fact, it’s a significantly smaller amount than just the normal process of harvesting corn in the field.
And by the way, there will be people who will want to take the settlement just, yeah, I’m just going to click on it, get it through and I’ll get my check in a year or two whenever it comes out. And that’s fine. People should do that if they need to do that. I’m really hoping we get a significant number of people either opting out or objecting. Letting the judge know that indeed this is not going to meet muster on this.
And then in January, January 17th, the judge is going to hear from people with their objections. So, it’s called a fairness hearing. And then sometime after the fairness hearing, he’ll rule on whether this is or isn’t a settlement that he’s going to sign off on.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Aside from being not enough money to cover all the damages to your assessment, what are the other problems with the settlement? Or is it really all about money?
WILLIE CADE: No, it’s not all about money. One of the things that’s happened in this particular case is there’s a parallel suit that was submitted in January, 2025 by the Biden administration. And it’s called the FTC case. And the FTC case sued John Deere also for basically the same thing. They’ve also proposed the settlement.
And by the way, I want to kind of back up a little bit on that. All of this is a proposal and it doesn’t take effect until the judge signs off on it. So, it is important to communicate either your objection or opt out.
But also, too is the tool. Is the tool that John Deere says in their document a complete tool? Well, we know from the FTC settlement that there are some parts that may or may not be available at the end of the year for the software ‑‑ in the software that is provided to dealers.
Now, a lot of times, John Deere will say the software is the same or similar. And they use kind of vague language on it. They’re not saying, oh, yeah. You’re going to get the dealer version of the software, i.e, the dealer version being the complete set of software needed for repair.
So, I’m a little hesitant to say it’s a 100 percent win. I would really like to see some mechanism that tests the dealer version of the software against what’s going to be provided to the customers. Earlier this year, I was down in Oklahoma. I visited the dealer. They were doing a demonstration. And they were saying, oh, it’s the same software. Dealer and customer, it’s the same software.
And I said, oh, okay, great. Let’s look at it. And they connected it up to a tractor, with the same cable and the same laptop. And they switched from the customer version to the dealer version. And lo and behold, there were differences. By the way, they were not pleased that I pointed that out. But that was a whole other story in this thing.
So, I am concerned that it’s not a complete set of software that is being provided. And I’m concerned that the process for oversight is overly burdensome for the customer or individual farmers.
TEDDY DOWNEY: So, would that kind of behavioral remedy be enough if they changed it and said, hey, it has to be the same software. Are there any other things that you want to see to make this a more complete settlement?
WILLIE CADE: I’m a little worried that there are other things that sound like it’s a complete settlement, but actually won’t be. And there was recently a collection of ‑‑ or a presentation to dealers by three experts in the field. And their conclusion on it was, basically, this is going to be business as usual. There’ll be no difference.
So, that one is kind of hard to take. And I think we really need to have an independent, well-versed, expert taking a look at both of those pieces of software and all the other things that go along with it. Whether it’s the availability of what’s known as the Dealer Technical Assistance Center or DTAC, whether all of those tickets and all of that learning is going to be available or not.
When the software for customers first put out, I did some research on it. It looked pretty good. But unfortunately, a few months later, they had taken away some of the capabilities of the software. And given that it’s a cloud-based system, that’s possible at any moment that John Deere can take away some of the capabilities of the software. So, it’ll require ongoing monitoring is my point.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Obviously, one issue here could be just more competition from independent repair shops. How many repair options are there for your typical farm? How much competition is there for dealer repair options, either dealer repair or independent repair shops?
WILLIE CADE: Yeah, one of the things that’s happened over the last couple of decades is Deere dealerships have started to get sold and are now larger chains. So, it used to be maybe a dealer owned one or two stores in this town and then the next one over. And a farmer could go from one dealership owner to another without many miles in between.
For example, in Montana, there’s two John Deere dealers, maybe three. And so, if you’re in the middle of Montana, you only really have one dealership chain that you can go to. And if you try to go to another dealership chain, people have been getting blocked and saying, oh no, no. You’re not part of our ‑‑ you haven’t been assigned to us as a customer. You belong to such and so chain.
And we’ve got some very specific examples of people who have tried to purchase a new pieces of John Deere equipment from two different John Deere dealers and one dealer saying, nope, you can’t buy it from me. You have to buy it from the other one. So, there’s no way to get, if you will, a competitive price between John Deere dealers. And that’s been a particularly troublesome piece for some people who are trying to get some new equipment at a good price.
TEDDY DOWNEY: So, there’s collusion among the dealers. What about are there any independent repair shops? I mean, I know a lot of independent repair has gone away as technology has locked in the software for specific parts and vehicles and things like that. Is that happening in the John Deere market?
WILLIE CADE: There are independents and they are crafty, capable people. Not every repair is about electronic repair. And not every repair needs an electronic tool to repair it. But certainly, a significant number do. And certainly, the more costly repairs are electronically controlled.
And I’ve talked to many of those guys and they are very skittish about what they do, how they do it, because they just don’t want that cut off by John Deere. So, there are repair guys around. But as these technologies come out, it becomes more and more of a specialty repair process.
And there’s an interesting parallel in the car market where you have a specialist in a kind of repair. Let’s call it brakes. The electronic control of brakes might be a specialty that someone knows inside and out. So, what’s happening is kind of a consultative process between the guy who’s actually turning the wrench and then the guy who knows how to deal with the software.
So, it’s kind of an interesting process. We’re in a real transition and have been basically since 2015 when the EPA put in its tier four emission requirements for non-road vehicles.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Oh, that’s interesting. I didn’t realize that was a trigger for this transition. What happened there?
WILLIE CADE: Tier four emissions on non-road ‑‑ which includes agriculture ‑‑ required electronic controls of the engine in order to meet the emission standards. And once we got one ECU ‑‑ or Electronic Control Unit – in, it started to become clear that more could be used inside these machines. And even today, there are some tractors that have 50 electronic controllers in them. They have their own network that they work on and they pass information around and all those kinds of things.
So, I attribute ‑‑ and this is me ‑‑ attribute really the kickstart of electronic control of these devices to emission control standards with tier four in 2015.
TEDDY DOWNEY: And that introduction of all these devices has allowed for more monopolistic control over the machine itself, over the equipment.
WILLIE CADE: Yeah, and a good example of this is in a combine, there’s something called a moisture meter. So, when, after the grain is cut, and just before it goes into the hopper, there’s something that measures the moisture in the crop. And it used to be that it was just an electronic piece. And if it went bad, you unplugged it, put in the new part and replugged it and the equipment was fully repaired. But now they have electronic serial numbers in that moisture meter. And what has to happen is that electronic serial number needs to be informed via software to the controlling unit so that it can work.
So, you can physically repair that particular piece, but it won’t work until you have the software connecting it. That’s called parts pairing. And it’s done in all kinds of electronics. Cell phones. Over the last decade, cell phones started maybe with one or two pieces that were part paired. Now I think the count is up to about twelve in iPhones.
TEDDY DOWNEY: And actually, we’ve done a lot of work on memory companies. Is there any memory chips required? And are those driving up costs? Are you seeing the electronic components driving up the costs of the equipment at all? Or is it still kind of a small slice of the overall cost?
WILLIE CADE: Oh, no, no, no. There’s a lot of electronics in these devices. And if you take a look at the pricing of flagship combines, starting back all the way at the turn of the century ‑‑ I know that doesn’t seem like that far away, but it is — in the year 2000, John Deere’s flagship combine was $165,000. Today, it’s $1.3 million. And it’s a kind of a hockey-shaped curve.
Back in 2019, it all of a sudden, just took off. And what was about $12,000 a year for the first 18 years of this century turned into – $125,000 a year increase year after year. And it’s remarkably consistent over time.
Certainly, it’s not something that the industry could sustain. I mean, if we’re looking five years out at combines that are $2.5 million, there’s not going to be very many people who can afford those and still make a profit in their operation.
Remember, the food chain, getting the food from the field all the way to your table, there’s a whole lot of people, a whole lot of different organizations, that need to make a profit in order to stay in business. And it’s just like a chain. If you weaken one link on it, it’s not going to help the whole chain.
TEDDY DOWNEY: I want to ask you more about some of this right to repair litigation and state laws, but this sounds like a much bigger problem than right to repair. What are the farmers asking for? We did a call with an election forecaster yesterday who’s saying the citizens in farm states are very unhappy.
It’s very likely that the Republicans will get voted out of power in Congress in November. What do the citizens want in farm country? It sounds like right to repair obviously could be one part of it. But are they asking for more? Do they want more? What kinds of solutions really will it take from your state legislator, your Congressional policymaker, your law enforcer, to really get at the heart of this? I’m not sure right to repair fixes $125,000 a year increase in the cost, the price of a combine.
WILLIE CADE: Clearly not. I mean, you just look at diesel prices, hitting, getting close to $7, maybe $8 or $9 by the time harvest ends this year, maybe not. And farmers really ‑‑ the phrase is “I don’t want a paycheck in the mail. I want it in the market.” And so, we really need to take a look at other opportunities that are available for income to farmers.
And right now, I think a good opportunity is the data that they generate. The Nebraska legislature just passed a bill that says producers own their own data and they have the rights to make the determinations and value, get value from that.
And if you look at some of the John Deere investor relationship information, John Deere estimates that the precision agriculture market ‑‑ it’s a little bit vague, but I interpret it to mean the data that’s coming out of agriculture is worth about $150 billion. And they spread that over the 600 million acres that they call engaged or they’re collecting data from. That comes out to about $250 an acre. That’s real money.
And the analogy I like to use on that one is crude oil has a value. The market knows the value of crude oil. Lots of people buy crude oil and they change it into different products. The ultimate product for some petroleum is cosmetics. And so, there’s a lot of value there. But no one assumes that the crude oil should be just given away for free.
But that is what’s happening now. Farmers are ‑‑ the machines that they have send the data without any recompense to the producers directly to the manufacturers. And it’s pretty much a black box what they do with it.
TEDDY DOWNEY: What about more aggressive action against John Deere? Antitrust litigation or price gouging legislation. I mean, this seems like almost like a utility at this point. It’s so monopolistic. Is there an appetite by the citizens in farm country to be more aggressive at the state and federal level towards John Deere?
WILLIE CADE: I clearly hear and see frustration and anger. I don’t think that out in rural America, there’s a real appetite for government intervention. So, I don’t think that’s the tool that we can use. I think there are other tools that we need to use. One example that’s coming up —
TEDDY DOWNEY: Just a quick question about that. What do they think that John Deere is? It’s effectively a government over them. That’s like they’re telling them what they can pay, how they can repair their stuff, whether or not they can have a livelihood. I mean, what’s the difference between John Deere and the government at that point?
WILLIE CADE: History. People are very loyal in rural America to their color. Like I said, I come from a divided family, red and green, right? So, people are (1) very loyal. Although, that goodwill, I think, is eroding quickly. But also, too, it’s not just in the equipment area. It’s in the seeds. It’s in the fertilizer. It’s the monopoly practices that are being ‑‑ forces that are being applied to individual producers are huge.
And, I mean, I think 98 percent of agricultural land in the U.S. is owned by family or family entities. These family entities, it’s very difficult to go up against the John Deere’s of the world or the Bayer or any of those others.
So, while there is a reluctance ‑‑ and I feel it very strongly when I talk to the farmers ‑‑ to have government action to take this, that tide may well be changing. And I think we’ll see how much it actually changes in this coming election.
TEDDY DOWNEY: What are your thoughts ‑‑ I interrupted you. I apologize. You were going to mention some other reforms outside of something that would be considered government intervention. I mean, I think about, by the way, private plaintiff’s cases as effectively a standard for government. I mean, you’re enforcing the law. Ostensibly, the state AG could be doing that too. This is really just another way to hold corporate malfeasance accountable. But obviously, you’re involved in plaintiff’s side litigation. What other tools are we talking about here that could get at some of this monopolistic conduct?
WILLIE CADE: Well, certainly passing more right to repair legislation in states will be a good start for agriculture. We’ve got it in Colorado. We’ve got to get it in many other states. We’ve worked hard at it over the last five or six years. John Deere is very good at thwarting, in all kinds of ways, any state legislative process.
We got right to repair and ag data ownership passed in the Iowa House this spring only to see it killed in the Iowa Senate. Some people say the Iowa Senate is where bills go to die. But we’ve got to get better and better at that.
We also need to start putting in some of this legislation, private right of action, that individuals can go to court and actually take action themselves. Most of the times when I’m working with legislators, they act as if that is against God and country, that someone would actually go to court and duke it out with somebody.
So, there’s a whole lot of history around supporting big successful companies.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Can you explain this to me? I find this so alien. I mean, the idea that you wouldn’t want your day in court, the idea — I mean, that seems un-American. I mean, more un-American to not want your day in court than to sort of slavishly take what some big company, I mean, what? We would still be England. You’d be getting gouged by the East India Company right now. It’s like crazy to hear farm citizens not wanting to fight against something that’s obviously harming — I don’t know. It’s really boggling my mind right now. Can you help me understand this?
WILLIE CADE: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let me dig into that for you. So, remember, if you’re in the midst of harvest and your machine goes down and you’ve been annoying to your dealer, you go to the end of the line, right? And every day that you’re not harvesting, once you’re ready to start, you’re losing money. And it can be thousands of dollars a day.
I have a farmer friend of mine. He started two weeks ago. He did his first day of harvesting, got 40 acres of corn in. And then he noticed that there was extra oil in his ‑‑ or extra cooling fluid in his oil. So, he literally, for the last two weeks, has not had his combine. And this is going to be brutal for him in terms of profitability this year on top of an already difficult year.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Is it that the dealer won’t fix it for him?
WILLIE CADE: Well, they seem to be out of parts. They can’t find the parts.
TEDDY DOWNEY: So, let me get this straight. He has a culture of fear because he’s afraid to complain about his dealer because they can punish him at a whim, put him at the back of the line. They don’t have the parts. They don’t have enough people to come fix it. It strikes me as more reason to hate the John Deere not. Like I get the culture of fear. I get if they’re afraid, they’re afraid. That’s what I’ve heard. That makes more sense to me.
The power imbalance is so gigantic that there is a culture of fear among farmers when it comes to John Deere, when it comes to seed companies, when it comes to fertilizer companies, because they can’t afford to fight. That’s very different from sort of like some kind of ideological disposition to not want to fight, to me.
WILLIE CADE: Agriculture is a business. Period. And you cannot sacrifice your business on principle. Period. I mean, you’ve got to make a profit. Period. Now, right now we’re in a cycle where maybe the last ‑‑ I’m sorry, go ahead.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Would you say that that makes it more incumbent on the government to act on behalf of a citizenry that is fearful for its livelihood? I mean, I’m just trying to respond to what you’re telling me, this very sort of like vulnerable position of the average farmer that you’re describing.
WILLIE CADE: Well, I’ll tell you an example where two reporters were listening on speakerphone to a dealer parts for this farmer. And this guy was not being polite. I’ll say it that way. And he was really telling them, hey, listen. You’re a pain in my ass. You support right to repair. I don’t have to do what you want kind of thing. And two reporters are sitting there from industry. They never wrote about it.
He submitted a complaint to the state attorney general. And the state attorney general never did anything about it. Because the state attorney general is an elected official who depends on campaign contributions. I mean, we’ve gotten to a very dire situation here. And put on top of that, the inconsistencies with weather and droughts in different areas in the U.S., and you’ve got a highly, very high sets of risks that everybody’s facing. Do you really want to take on and add some more risk to your business? Probably not.
TEDDY DOWNEY: No, I get it. It makes sense. It makes sense.
WILLIE CADE: And by the way, the people who get hurt the most in this are the young farmers. Because they don’t have any of that equity built up over the years to kind of sustain themselves over this. And if you look at the average age ‑‑ let’s say it’s around 60, it’s plus or minus some numbers there ‑‑ that’s kind of an old workforce for agriculture.
So, there’s a whole lot of work that needs to be done. And I was on the Hill the last three days and we were talking about the farm bill and passing the farm bill. And I mean, there’s some good things in the farm bill that need to get passed, but is it a real solution? I don’t think so. Is there going to be a need for a bailout come the fall or early winter? I think probably. But that’s no way to manage an industry. That’s not a competitive environment. And I believe that competitive environment over decades is what made our economy so fruitful.
And that’s why I think, you know, when I look back at the breakup, for example, of AT&T, and everybody was like, oh, we need a monopoly for phones because it’s so great. And we need the switches. I look at today’s telecommunications capabilities. No way would we have gotten even near what we have today if AT&T was not broken up.
So, there’s some real value in taking a look at, hey, wait a minute. Maybe this has gone too far. Or what can we do on that? And there’s a lot smarter people who live this day in and day out that we really need to start putting around the table and having discussions with.
TEDDY DOWNEY: I want to get to the demand side of shaping the market in a little bit. But let’s finish talking about litigation and state laws on right to repair. You talked about some of the momentum there. Where do you see litigation heading? Where do you see state laws heading? Because that’s really where the pioneering action is. I mean, we can wait for the Farm Bill. We can wait for the November elections. But it seems like the tip of the spear is really litigation and state laws.
WILLIE CADE: Well, first in terms of litigation, I think we need to really take a look and have people, if you will, vote on the proposed settlement for farmers. That’s why I’m adamant about do nothing is the wrong thing to do. And I don’t care whether you opt out or whether you file a claim and get a check, but don’t do nothing. That’s number one.
Number two is then we’ve got to start working on data and understanding the value of data in the agricultural context. I’ve been digging deep into the value of data and I’m only starting to understand it. But I do know that corporations like Facebook or Google, their entire value is based on their data. And if we don’t understand that data has real value ‑‑ we can’t touch it, we can’t feel it, but it has real value ‑‑ then it’s going to be really hard for farmers to get that what I call second harvest.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Interesting. Yeah, we talked about that already. I find that very interesting as well. I want to put out one more request for listener questions. If you have a question, please put it in the chat, put it in the Q&A feature here and we will get to it.
Let’s talk about data for another second. Do you see any potential for abuse there? You mentioned John Deere is already monetizing it. Do you see any concerns about how they could restrict data or otherwise harm farmers related to data, in a similar way that they do with their right to repair restrictions?
WILLIE CADE: Well, when you have as much data ‑‑ and as not only breadth, but also depth of data that they have ‑‑ there’s certainly lots of things that can be done with it. It’s a black box to us what that $150 billion value really is. And I think we need to get some real transparency on it.
But also, too, there are corporate mistakes ‑‑ I’ll call it to be polite ‑‑ that can get covered up if you’re the only one that has the data. And an example I can think of is another farmer friend of mine had a failure that got fixed. And on the invoice, it talks about, oh yeah, this was a fix if fail item.
In other words, John Deere waited until it failed before they fixed it. And sometimes they waited long enough so that it was no longer under warranty. And sometimes it was fixed under warranty. But if it’s a known problem ‑‑ and it’s not a unique problem, let’s say ‑‑ then that is a data asymmetry that really costs farmers and saves John Deere money.
TEDDY DOWNEY: That is really distressing to hear that they would wait out your warranty, just unconscionable stuff there. I want to go back to the state law stuff. This seems like a lot of seemingly illegal conduct that you’re talking about.
State officials are taking in so much money that they’re not going to do anything to John Deere. John Deere dealers are punishing farmers if they speak out, retaliating against them for what? Engaging in free speech? There’s just a lot here that seems like, if it’s not illegal, you could pass a law to say, hey, you can’t coerce or retaliate against or engage in this kind of conduct against your customers. I mean, obviously, I think there’s bigger issues. But at a minimum, are you seeing anyone responding to these complaints, these farmer complaints, with any kind of legislative attention?
WILLIE CADE: So, in the FTC settlement, there was explicit language around intimidation. But unfortunately, it’s such a vague notion. What do you mean by intimidating? What does that mean? How does a farmer know whether they’re being intimidated or just, oh yeah, we don’t have people for you?
TEDDY DOWNEY: And who’s enforcing it? Is the FTC sending people to go enforce that?
WILLIE CADE: Yeah. So, I agree with you that there are lots of places that are dancing on in the margins. Now, mind you, I’ve sat across or talked to a number of people who work or have worked at John Deere. And to a person, they think they are doing the right thing because they are maximizing the profit for John Deere. And kind of whatever they do, as long as it maximizes profit for John Deere.
Now, by the way, they’ll say that we’re working for the customer and our customer is foremost in our minds and all that kind of stuff. It’s really interesting to listen to them. And I just kind of look at them and in my own mind, I go, really, do you not see what’s happening to farmers out there with what you’re doing? And they look at the technology and they say, oh, the technology is great and we’re doing wonderful things and that kind of stuff.
And by the way, Iowa is a great example. Yeah, yields have gone up over the last three or four decades dramatically, but so has the cancer rate in Iowa. And now nobody’s saying that it’s a function of farming, but boy, it’s an interesting correlation, right? And specifically nitrates in the water. And so, there’s some evidence to it.
I’m hoping we’re at a tipping point, quite frankly. And if that happens, we’ll see it in state legislature. State legislatures are going to start to go, yeah, I think it’s time to pass this. This has been enough of an issue. We’ve got enough people who’ve been testifying on it. But remember, when you’re bringing a bill through a legislative process, there’s one path through and there’s a hundred ways to stop it. And that’s the hard work of passing legislation.
TEDDY DOWNEY: One thing you mentioned was like, at some point, this is just not sustainable to keep raising the price of the combine by this degree every year. You’re just going to run out of rent to extract. And obviously, that’s bad for John Deere too, right?
Like, I mean, there’s just only so much money they can strip out of the system. I mean, in some respects, you’re in a monopoly competition among John Deere, the seed companies and the fertilizer companies or whatever other dominant firms, to just take out all the profit and leave the farmer with nothing. As you mentioned, they’re going out of business. They can’t sustain it that much longer.
How close to the edge is the farm industry when it comes to their profit margins, their losses, the risks that you’re talking about, just making it unsustainable going forward? How dire is the situation?
WILLIE CADE: People are referring to this as dire as in the 1980s when Farm Aid started and there were lots of sales and those kinds of things. A lot of people aren’t going to get their loans renewed. I mean, agriculture almost exclusively operates on loans from banks. And if you don’t get your loan renewed for the next year, you may have to shut down your operation, period. And the banking industry is saying that a significant portion ‑‑ and I don’t know the numbers because they aren’t talking about it publicly ‑‑ but a significant portion of farmers are not going to have their loans renewed and they won’t be able to operate next year.
Now, will that land get planted and harvested? Hopefully, but maybe not. And it’s not only row crops. We have to remember when you go into a grocery store and you see the variety of foods that we have, all of that starts with somebody growing it somewhere. And there’s all of those different kinds of operations. And an operation to grow onions is different than an operation to grow beans or fruit.
I mean, it’s just a massive array of different kinds of operations. And none of them are identical. Even the row upon row of corn out in Iowa or Illinois, everybody has their own way of working. And then the whole bringing in the beef from Argentina is like, give me a break. I’m sorry.
TEDDY DOWNEY: No, I want to talk about that, the demand side of this equation. What do the farmers think about what’s going on with Brazil, with China, with trade wars? And what would they like to see as a solution on the demand side of this, where they can sell, what kind of markets they can sell into? Do they have problems selling to the U.S. market, international markets, all of that? I’m very interested to get your —
WILLIE CADE: Sure. So, one of the things that passed out of committee yesterday in the Senate was what’s called MCOOL, Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling. So, that’s in the Senate bill, but not the House bill. So, after the election, hopefully they’ll be able to come back and reconcile.
But Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling is a no-brainer in my mind. It’s like, wait a minute. I recently bought a car, used, but a car, right? And I wanted to buy a U.S. nameplate. Not anybody else’s, a U.S. nameplate. Now, I know that not all the parts were made in the U.S., et cetera, et cetera, but at least it was a U.S. nameplate. And so, I’m happy with that. So, that’s one small thing that we can start to do. The export markets and with China and soybeans, that was a crazy mix up in this whole process.
So, we need consistent and precise agricultural policy. We can no longer afford to have on again, off again, up and down, left and right, kinds of policies that may look good over here, but actually have dramatic effects over there. And the case in point I will use is diesel in this case, is we just can’t afford $7, $8, $9, $10 a gallon diesel.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Yeah, and I just want to stay on that one point. You touched on Brazil. You touched on China. What about selling? Are there complaints by farmers about selling into the U.S. market? What’s that like? Can that be improved?
Because obviously, it seems like there’s a lot of demand for agricultural products in the U.S., but it doesn’t seem like the farmers are getting paid. And so, it’s hard to understand that disconnect. Obviously, we’re talking about some of the input costs. But then you’re also talking about like there seems like the prices are going way up for the customer. How is that not funneling back to the farmer?
WILLIE CADE: Well, again, it’s the monopoly on the other side. The grocery outlets are fewer and fewer and larger and larger. And here’s a good example is one producer I was talking to yesterday got a contract to provide their products to a relatively large firm. It was good for them, right? But in order to get paid by that firm, they had to register with that firm’s invoicing process, which costs them $6,000 a year. Oh, by the way, that invoicing firm is owned by the grocery store.
So, it’s like, wait a minute. So, it’s kind of that large organization mentality. And again, it’s another monopoly going forward.
TEDDY DOWNEY: I’m guessing that the payment terms were net 120 or something egregious as well. Anything you want to leave our audience with? I mean, I tried to be optimistic lately about the potential for some of these solutions to come about . Yesterday, again, we had this call where the election experts said in voters in farm country, they want to make sure their representatives are doing something for working people, the average working person. That seems to be a pretty clear signal. Maybe it’s been that way for a while and I should be less optimistic. But what’s your optimistic take on how things turn around? You mentioned a tipping point. What’s your take on how things could get better from here?
WILLIE CADE: So, Teddy, I have to preface this with I am the ultimate optimist. I am always optimistic and always wanting to work again and again for solutions. So, take this with a grain of salt. But I believe that the pain that’s being felt out in rural America is such that people are going to take some real action.
And one way they can do it is by objecting to the settlement from John Deere or opting out. Either one’s a perfectly good way to voice your concern in this. I think people are going to be out there voting. I see some wonderful candidates out there that are talking. There’s a lot of change that seems like it’s going to happen. It’s scary. There’s no question about it. It’s not going to be business as usual. But it’s a step.
And so, I’m kind of optimistic about it. That’s why I am appreciative. That’s why I like this Deere settlement. Even though I’ve got a gazillion things that I think need to be changed on it, we’re moving forward on it.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Well, I think that’s a great way to end this call. Willie, this was a true pleasure. I love your enthusiasm. I love your energy. Good luck with everything. This was a really amazing conversation.
WILLIE CADE: Great. Hey, Teddy, and if there’s some major changes that come up on this, let’s get back together so we can tell everybody about it.
TEDDY DOWNEY: Yeah, absolutely. And I’ll certainly have my colleagues reach out for quotes on updates on the Farm Bill and updates on litigation as well.
Before we wrap up, if you can’t join these conversations live, be sure to check out The Capitol Forum podcast. For more discussions like this, you can listen to “Second Request” for conversations on antitrust and competition, “TCF Investigates” for deeper reporting from our newsroom, and for our European colleagues, “The Brussels Beat.” We also have a new conference call series called “Private Credit Crisis,” which is about the world of private credit, private equity, some shady loans. It’s pretty scary, to be honest. If you’re trying for optimism, I don’t recommend that one. And then we have another series on the “2026 Election Outlook,” which is super interesting as well.
So, you can find all those podcasts at thecapitolforum.com, wherever you get your podcasts. Willie, thank you again for joining us today. And thanks everyone for listening.
WILLIE CADE: Thank you, Teddy.
TEDDY DOWNEY: This concludes the call. Bye-bye
