Published on Jan 08, 2026
As part of our tech policy coverage, we are launching our annual predictions on some of the most meaningful events expected to take place in 2026, which we will track regularly throughout the year.
To discuss these predictions with Executive Editor Teddy Downey, please join us for a conference call on January 9 at 1pm Eastern time. Please register at the link below to receive access details.
Litigation Predictions
Prediction: U.S. District Judge Leonie M. Brinkema will break up Google’s (GOOG) ad tech monopoly.
Market Impact: Premium content companies will enter the early stages of a long-term turnaround fueled by a court win on Google ad tech combined with successful copyright litigation, and the public’s very low opinion of AI technology. This trend will play out over a multi-year period with premium content generating more revenue than currently expected from subscription, litigation, licensing, as well as from ads in a newly competitive online ad industry.
Confidence Level: Medium-high. The consensus among experts who attended the court proceedings and have paid close attention believe the judge is more likely than not to side with DOJ on the remedy.
Prediction: DOJ and/or state attorneys general will appeal Google search remedy.
Market Impact: DOJ and state AGs will be viewed, rightfully, as underdogs on appeal, but a potential reversal creates risk to Google that the market is all but ignoring after U.S. District Judge Amit P. Mehta’s surprising remedy ruling and subsequent (and highly irregular) international campaign to encourage judicial humility in tech markets.
Confidence Level: High. It’s hard to imagine that States will not appeal, at a minimum, given how many resources went into the Google litigation as well as the added political opportunity of standing up to Big Tech in an election year when Trump has cozied up with executives in the industry, should the DOJ not proceed on its own.
Affordability-related Predictions
Prediction: Congressional races, state AG attention, and the Trump agenda will all focus on affordability issues, with health care, energy prices and food prices dominating the news from these policymakers.
Market Impact: An affordability focus would create significant headline risk for companies that are central to growth and profitability of AI and tech, including utilities, energy companies, and firms that use or benefit from algorithmic pricing. The overhang will likely persist through the midterm elections, with action more likely to have teeth in 2026.
From an opportunities standpoint, the market generally would positively respond to any White House efforts to push tariff increases to 2027 or otherwise deescalate trade tensions ahead of the midterms, should the White House view tariffs as connected to an affordability agenda. Further, while it seems improbable, any Congressional momentum for a stimulus bill as part of a second reconciliation package would be viewed positively by investors.
Confidence Level: High. Given that Mamdani already ran and won on an affordability-focused campaign and given how candidates and the President are saying that affordability is a top election year issue, this is a fairly safe prediction to make.
That said, we are less confident in exactly how the Republicans and Democrats will translate an “affordability agenda” into policy that realistically addresses pricing and cost concerns. Both parties are equally likely to come up with solutions that are incoherent and/or ineffective, and so, the confidence in the prediction is high but the confidence in either party to legitimately address the concern on a policy front is low.
For example, Trump recently signaled a plan to issue an executive order to freeze investor purchases of rental homes, which could certainly have an affordability impact, but the Trump administration has yet to follow through on populist proposals aimed at powerful business interests. Trump’s threat to implement most favored nation policies for pharma to achieve lower customer prices ultimately was coopted by the industry not to lower costs in the U.S. but to raise costs abroad, resulting in no real change to pricing in the U.S. Further, Trump promised PBM reforms that could have led to lower pharmaceutical costs, yet the administration has not followed through from a policy standpoint.
The Democratic party, on the other hand, is equally likely to embrace reforms that could lead to lower prices (see menu of options that Mamdani has proposed) as they are incoherent “abundance” recommendations that almost certainly would not deliver lower prices. Our prediction on market impact, therefore, focused on areas where there is clear risk and opportunity—energy markets and tariffs.
Prediction: DOJ’s antitrust division will be able to successfully point to action related to an affordability agenda, including likely monopolization litigation against UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Big Ag, and a trial in the Live Nation (LYV) case that’s set to kick off in March. Given the president’s new interest in affordability politics, Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater could see her political support from the White House increase after a very rocky first year.
Market Impact: AAG Slater remaining in power would be seen as a setback for Big Tech, as stakeholders view her as a main driver of the continuation of monopolization cases against Big Tech, including both Google cases and the pending litigation against Apple (AAPL). Any increase in political support for Slater likely would be viewed as at least a slightly less favorable environment for Big Tech.
However, Slater’s tenure has been extremely good for mergers generally, as many cases that would typically have received a second request have been cleared, and there is no indication that DOJ will pursue aggressive merger policy given all the resources that have been and are likely to continue to be dedicated to monopolization enforcement.
Confidence Level: Low. While it appears that Slater continues to enjoy a good working relationship with the President, the ongoing HPE Juniper court situation has the potential to bring up the bad blood created from that clash between Bondi’s team and Slater’s team at DOJ. It’s unclear if that relationship can be repaired, and to some extent, Slater’s ability to regain authority will have to come from a more proactive White House as well as, potentially, more political difficulties from Bondi, which could result from the ongoing fallout from the Epstein files as well as the myriad other uncomfortable positions Trump pushes the DOJ into given his expansive view of Presidential authority.
Further, should Democrats win the House in November, that could lead to an exodus from the administration so as not to stick around for subpoenas in 2027, which creates even more uncertainty in this power dynamic.
Prediction: Republican FTC commissioners will find themselves on the hot seat with the White House as they face difficulty in successfully pivoting from an anti-woke policy agenda to affordability issues as the agency’s enforcement capabilities diminish as a result of significant staff attrition.
Market Impact: Generally, the FTC has been relatively hands-off when it comes to enforcement against big mergers, and there is no indication of significant tech-related enforcement cases on the horizon. At this point, Big Tech seems generally supportive of Ferguson and would get behind a White House nomination of Ferguson to become a judge, which would be less likely if the chair loses political support from Trump’s orbit because he is unable to deliver on affordability in front of the midterms.
Confidence Level: Low. While it will be very difficult for the FTC to implement a clear and effective affordability agenda that results in significant public action before the midterm elections, it’s unclear if performative action or press releases or launched investigations would be enough to keep political support from the White House.
Congressional Predictions
Prediction: Congress will show renewed interest in Big Tech breakup legislation after failed DOJ and FTC litigation against Google and Facebook.
Market Impact: While any legislation would be highly unlikely to pass this year, Big Tech will face an increase in headline risk, and, should there be enough bipartisan consensus on the matter, tech companies could face meaningful legislative risk from an upcoming Congress. In short, while legislation would face extremely low odds, Congress could lay the groundwork for a meaningful legislative push next year, especially if there is a change in control of the House of Representatives in November.
Confidence Level: High. This prediction was actually already made by conservative advocate Joel Thayer on an episode of Second Request. He said that he was already making progress on this front, and it appears to be a safe bet that we will see more calls for changes to the antitrust laws and/or a breakup of Big Tech in Congress.
Trade Predictions
Prediction: OpenAI and other AI companies, met with disinterest or constrained resources by federal policymakers, will look to European antitrust policymakers for help in fighting against efforts by Big Tech, particularly Google and Amazon, to leverage their dominance to favor their services in the AI market.
Market Impact: U.S. companies turning to European enforcers for help would likely frustrate President Trump’s all-out assault on European tech regulations. It could also lead to increased tension within the White House from a tech policy standpoint if smaller AI companies are asking for different policies from their Big Tech investors.
To the extent both European and U.S. policymakers remain hesitant to address Open AI’s concerns, the already dominant Big Tech firms will be rewarded by investors at the expense of their smaller rivals.
Prediction: Big Tech will seek to lock in “free data flows” in trade agreements.
This has been part of their strategy to preserve their ability to train models in low-intellectual property-protection jurisdictions and mitigate IP infringement liability concerns.
Market Impact: While it may be a long-shot strategy when it comes to surviving in court, it would be yet another “get out of jail free” card that Big Tech could pursue in a less high profile policy environment. Further, Tech has enjoyed many wins already during the Trump administration when it comes to trade policy, so they would be in the driver’s seat to push through these kinds of reforms.
Confidence Level. Medium-high. Big Tech has, since the Biden administration, placed more emphasis on winning these “free data flow” provisions, and it seems like only a matter of time before they try to bring jurisdictional arguments up in court cases around ai copyright infringement. That said, it’s such a low-profile issue, it’s unclear if this will become a known controversial legal topic of interest in 2026.
State Predictions
Prediction: State litigation will continue to position at the policy vanguard key tech policy issues, including algorithmic price fixing, the gig economy and privacy.
Market Impact: As stakeholders primarily concern themselves with federal policy, large states, including New York and California, could push ahead with reforms that could dramatically reform the cost structure for tech companies in significant U.S. markets. For example, New York is implementing a new food delivery law as California rolls out enforcement of a new privacy law. Municipalities are also rolling out curbs and prohibitions related to housing tech. The landscape for state reforms could create additional Big Tech risk should a wave of state policymakers be elected in November with a focus on affordability.
Confidence Level: High. Perhaps the biggest problem for investors and industry stakeholders to their understanding of policy risk is threat they dedicate such an outsized level of attention to federal policy fights, assuming that those will trump state and municipal reforms. From a political standpoint, the states are often important leading indicators of where the law is headed and the most creative and active policymakers and law enforcers are at the state and municipal level, not at the federal level. Further, Big Tech has a dominating level of political influence right now during the Trump administration.
