The Forum Newsletter | November 8, 2025

Published on Nov 08, 2025

Dear Reader,

Welcome to The Forum, an opinion and analysis newsletter from The Capitol Forum. Twice each month, leading voices from law, policy, and business offer fresh perspectives on the debates shaping markets and governance.

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This week’s Forum spotlights Sarah Carden on the politics shaping U.S. farm policy, alongside Jonathan Baron’s analysis of the Trump Administration’s financial and policy support for Argentina.

We hope you enjoy this issue!

— The Capitol Forum Team

Farmers Need Fair Markets, Not More Mixed Signals from Washington

By Sarah Carden, research and policy director at Farm Action and an organic vegetable farmer

(This article has been significantly updated with additional reporting as of November 8, 2025.)

President Donald Trump campaigned on standing up for American farmers and ranchers. Yet in his second term, many of the administration’s decisions have benefited foreign competitors and global agribusiness giants instead of the farmers and rural communities he vowed to champion.

The administration’s recent $40 billion bailout of Argentina is a clear example. U.S. farmers were blindsided by the decision to use Treasury funds to stabilize a direct soybean competitor while domestic prices were collapsing. Within days of receiving U.S. financial support, Argentina dropped its 26% export tax, and China quickly purchased more than a million tons of soybeans.

Meanwhile, U.S. soybean growers, already reeling from China’s halt in purchases since May, were forced to sell portions of their 2025 crop at the lowest prices in years due to cash-flow pressure and limited storage. When China later announced plans to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, the real winners were not farmers, but global grain traders who had already purchased grain at harvest lows.

This disconnect between promises and outcomes is not limited to crop farmers. The administration’s proposal to expand beef imports from Argentina generated the same unease among cattle producers. The White House argued it would lower prices for consumers. But that argument misdiagnoses the real problem. Beef prices are high not just because of a smaller domestic cattle herd, but because four corporations—JBS, Tyson, Cargill, and National Beef—control roughly 85% of beef processing in the United States. Their market power allows them to squeeze ranchers on the buying side and consumers on the retail side, while posting record profits.

Against that backdrop, President Trump’s November 7 call for a Department of Justice investigation into meatpacker conduct is welcome. If the administration is genuinely committed to restoring competition, this announcement must not end with the investigation, but with legal action aimed at reducing the concentration in the cattle and beef market.

If the administration truly wants to support U.S. cattle producers, it must go further and demand that Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling be part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement during its 2026 Joint review. This action would allow U.S. cattle producers to distinguish their beef from imports from countries such as Argentina.

Other actions expose contradictions in the administration’s stance on monopoly power in agriculture. While USDA and DOJ signed an agreement to coordinate agricultural competition policy, the administration quietly eliminated a grant program that helped states investigate and prosecute anti-competitive behavior.

Additionally, the United States Department of Agriculture cut programs like the Local Food Purchase Assistance Cooperative Agreement Program and Local Food for Schools, removing more than a billion dollars in federal procurement that supported local farmers, food hubs, and rural economies. That money will now flow back to the multinational suppliers who already dominate federal purchasing.

Taken together, these actions signal inconsistent, often conflicting approaches to corporate power in agriculture.

If the administration wants to fulfill its promises to rural America, it must fully align its policies with its rhetoric. That starts with confronting consolidation across the food system, restoring fair and transparent markets, and investing in the farmers and ranchers who keep this country fed—not the corporations that profit from their struggle.

Only by tackling monopolies head-on can we rebuild a farm economy that works for the people who grow our food and for the communities they sustain.

Support for Milei Part of Trump’s Broader “Citadel Strategy” for American Security

By Jonathan Baron, Founder and Principal at Baron Public Affairs

The Trump Administration’s support for Argentina under President Javier Milei reflects the implementation of a new American security concept, not simply the product of a warm friendship between two national leaders.  To replace the global alliance system constructed during the Cold War to defeat Soviet communism and sustained in recent decades to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, and people, the Trump approach prioritizes shielding the United States from anticipated chaos throughout much of the globe for the next half century.  This expected international volatility – the projected consequence of collapsing demographics, stagnant economic growth, and ethno-religious conflict – demands creating a fortress position surrounded by buffers and supported by aligned states committed to contributing financial resources, industrial capacity, and/or natural resources.

A survey of the major regions finds cause for concern from President Trump’s nationalist-populist perspective: the unraveling of the European project; the fragmentation of the Middle East and return to its pre-World War I state; and rising conflict in Southeast Asia.  The American experience of the first quarter of the 21st century offers little evidence to suggest that these trends might somehow be managed from Washington, D.C.  Instead, the architects of the Trump policy seek to maintain distance (physical, but also economic and civilizational) from the conflict zones, create genuine deterrence, and institute shock absorbers to insulate the homeland and provide the time for any mobilization.  The outbreak of a land war in Europe, seeming instability in China signaled externally in regional aggression targeting not just Taiwan but also Japan, and the total collapse of Syria all inform the Trump assessment and drive the response.

To begin, the Trump Administration seeks to reestablish both dominance in North America (thus, the early policies on Canada, Mexico, and Greenland) and South America, where a revitalized Argentina has the potential to anchor the American position and a new Monroe Doctrine.  Part of this new Monroe Doctrine entails increasing U.S. influence as a response to China’s growing presence on the continent, including in Argentina.  Along with vanquishing anti-Americanism in Venezuela, a revived and pro-American Argentina would make a major contribution to securing the Western Hemisphere.  Of course, Presidents Trump and Milei have forged a close personal relationship through a common disdain for the establishment Left, but this shared sentiment has facilitated – not created – the cooperation.  At core, the United States under President Trump has determined that geography matters once again and the classic American priority of hemispheric supremacy must be reasserted.

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