By Jonathan Baron, Founder and Principal at Baron Public Affairs

The Trump Administration’s support for Argentina under President Javier Milei reflects the implementation of a new American security concept, not simply the product of a warm friendship between two national leaders.  To replace the global alliance system constructed during the Cold War to defeat Soviet communism and sustained in recent decades to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, and people, the Trump approach prioritizes shielding the United States from anticipated chaos throughout much of the globe for the next half century.  This expected international volatility – the projected consequence of collapsing demographics, stagnant economic growth, and ethno-religious conflict – demands creating a fortress position surrounded by buffers and supported by aligned states committed to contributing financial resources, industrial capacity, and/or natural resources.

A survey of the major regions finds cause for concern from President Trump’s nationalist-populist perspective: the unraveling of the European project; the fragmentation of the Middle East and return to its pre-World War I state; and rising conflict in Southeast Asia.  The American experience of the first quarter of the 21st century offers little evidence to suggest that these trends might somehow be managed from Washington, D.C.  Instead, the architects of the Trump policy seek to maintain distance (physical, but also economic and civilizational) from the conflict zones, create genuine deterrence, and institute shock absorbers to insulate the homeland and provide the time for any mobilization.  The outbreak of a land war in Europe, seeming instability in China signaled externally in regional aggression targeting not just Taiwan but also Japan, and the total collapse of Syria all inform the Trump assessment and drive the response.

To begin, the Trump Administration seeks to reestablish both dominance in North America (thus, the early policies on Canada, Mexico, and Greenland) and South America, where a revitalized Argentina has the potential to anchor the American position and a new Monroe Doctrine.  Part of this new Monroe Doctrine entails increasing U.S. influence as a response to China’s growing presence on the continent, including in Argentina.  Along with vanquishing anti-Americanism in Venezuela, a revived and pro-American Argentina would make a major contribution to securing the Western Hemisphere.  Of course, Presidents Trump and Milei have forged a close personal relationship through a common disdain for the establishment Left, but this shared sentiment has facilitated – not created – the cooperation.  At core, the United States under President Trump has determined that geography matters once again and the classic American priority of hemispheric supremacy must be reasserted.